Coronavirus – Raportul III al SIIS

Am primit, de curând, al treilea raport al Institutului din Shanghai pentru studii internationale (SIIS).  Vă invit să-l parcurgeti:

China Is Confident in Revitalizing Its Economy Amid the COVID-19 Outbreak

With increasing effect of China’s efforts to fight against the COVID-19 epidemic, the Chinese government has made timely readjustment in order to balance the counter- epidemic endeavor with economic and social development, which helps minimize the impacts of the epidemic and accomplish the national goals in all walks of life set for 2020. As a result, economic and social activities are starting to revive in most parts of the country except for Hubei province and Wuhan city.

While the dynamics of China’s ongoing battle against the epidemic continue drawing people’s attention, the international community has been ever more concerned about the economic impacts of the epidemic on China and the world at large. For instance, what risks and potential opportunities will the epidemic bring to China’s and world economy in the short run? How effective are the policies and measures adopted by the Chinese government to minimize its economic impacts? To what extent will the epidemic spur China’s reform of its economic system and further opening-up in the mid- and long-term? And what are the spill-over effects of the epidemic on world economy?

Obviously, China is very different from what it was 17 years ago (when the SARS epidemic broke out) in economic weight, position in global industrial and value chains, and its contribution to the world economy. The political and economic situations of the world have also undergone substantial changes. Thus, the historical analogy can only offer limited insight. We need a more comprehensive and dynamic perspective in answering the above- mentioned questions, which is seen in the latest report by the task force on world economy at Shanghai Institutes for International Studies.

The report points out that the multitude of the economic impact from the COVID-19 outbreak depends on how long it takes to keep the virus under full control. Although the situation in Hubei and Wuhan remains grim, things are looking up in other parts of China, where local authorities are trying to strike a balance between fighting the epidemic and reviving economic life with tailored measures. Therefore, the epidemic is very hopeful to be kept in check within the first quarter, with controllable impacts on China’s economy for the whole year – despite its severe short-term damage. Nevertheless, the report warns of the difficulty for small and middle-sized enterprises (SMEs) to resume full operations and the potential long-term effects of indefinite restoration of industrial production in worst-hit epidemic areas on the global supply chains. Meanwhile, it is believed that the epidemic will bring new opportunities for health-care, online services, and some other industries.
Perface | I
This report suggests observing how effectively the Chinese government’s counter- epidemic economic policies will turn out, so as to assess the short-term impacts of the epidemic on China’s economy. There are two kinds in China’s economic policy toolkit: one is for short-term relief (such as various fiscal, financial, monetary and tax policies, and reduction of costs of labor), in order to help enterprises, including SMEs, to overcome the temporary difficulties in capital and labor caused by the epidemic. The other is aimed to provide lasting policy support for enterprises. A number of policies – such as purchasing emergency supplies with China’s foreign exchange reserves to reduce government spending, further opening China’s capital market, and fostering a new capital-labor consensus through social mobilization to facilitate enterprise operation – are recommended in the report.

This report believes that China’s fight against the epidemic will generate fresh momentum for its further reform. First, it helps foster a national consensus on high- quality development. Second, it helps enhance China’s national governance capacity and comprehensive capabilities in countering social and economic risks, since the country’s weaknesses in prevention and control of major public health emergencies – as exposed during the COVID-19 outbreak – need to be mended through deeper reform on all fronts. Third, it helps strengthen China’s digital economy, optimize its economic structure, and generate new momentum for economic growth. To meet the many new demands created by the epidemic, China’s digital economy is expected to “fast-forward” in the near future.

Based on the estimates of leading international economic institutions, this report also explores the potential impacts of the epidemic on the world economy and China-U.S. economic relations. Given China’s economic size and key position in global industrial chains, the immediate spill-over effects of the epidemic do not only lie in falling prices of global commodities as well as declining services trade such as in tourism and international education, but also in unexpected disruption of global supply chains.

It is necessary to note again that happiness and hazards are shared by all nations in the era of economic globalization. As Kristalina Georgieva, Managing Director of the International Monetary Fund (IMF), recently remarked, “Global cooperation is essential to the containment of the COVID-19 and its economic impact, particularly if the outbreak turns out to be more persistent and widespread.” In all, the actual impacts of the COVID- 19 epidemic on the world economy depend on how soon China can tame it and how closely the international community will bind together in the face of this common challenge to mankind.

Chen Dongxiao President, Shanghai Institutes for International Studies
Perface | II
Revitalize China’s Economy:
Winning Another Battle Against COVID-19 Epidemic

The novel coronavirus outbreak in the lead-up to the 2020 Chinese Spring Festival has inflicted great pain on tens of thousands of patients and their families, involving countless courageous Chinese citizens – who otherwise would have spent the holiday with their families and friends – in an unprecedented anti-virus war. Although normal economic activity and social order have been disrupted, the good news is that the growth of new confirmed cases has been on a steady decline since February 3 across the country (including the epicenter province of Hubei). On current trends, health experts predict, the peak is expected to arrive in one to two weeks. Seeing optimistic signs, people now have begun to contemplate how to restore production to normal levels in the aftermath of the epidemic. This report reflects on the economic impacts of this public health emergency on China and the world and puts forward some policy recommendations on how to contain the fallout.

 

Economic Impacts: Local and Transitory

The epidemic first deals a severe blow to tourism and consumption. Less fatal but more contagious than the SARS outbreak in 2003, the novel coronavirus is more widespread, triggering Hubei lockdown on January 23, followed by highest alert levels activated all across China. As a result, the world’s largest seasonal population movement has come to a sudden halt; new year film releases are suspended and reunion dinners canceled; and the Disneyland mascot Mickey Mouse are left alone in deserted theme parks greeting the Year of the Mouse. According to China’s Civil Aviation Administration, air passenger traffic between January 27 and February 12 plummeted by 70% compared with last year’s Spring Festival travel rush. Thirty-two of the forty-one trains running between Beijing and
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Shanghai have also been suspended.

The impacts have spilled over to supply chains on the supply side since early February.

Businesses and factories had been scheduled to reopen on February 10 after an extended Lunar New Year holiday. But with many workers and employees unwilling or unable to return to quarantine regions, the resumption of routine operations in many workplaces has been delayed. In a few cases where business and production are restored, raw material shortages, logistical difficulties, and cash crunches are straining normal operations. Already affected by deleveraging policies, producers of farm exports and fast-moving consumer goods are facing shrinking demands as importers impose additional restrictions. Densely populated provinces with high spending power like Zhejiang in the Yangtze River Delta and Guangdong in the Pearl River Delta are also among the hardest-hit regions. Virusonset in these manufacturing, trade, and financial centers has darkened China’s overall economic outlook.

 

The magnitude of the economic impact ultimately depends on how long the epidemic lasts. The impact will not be far-reaching if the outbreak can be brought under control by the end of March. After a near 8% dive in the Shanghai benchmark index on February 3, China’s stock markets rebounded in the next few days, showing a deep “V” pattern which represents growing market optimism. At present, economists are most concerned about two challenges.

The first is how to get small and middle-sized enterprises (SMEs) back to work.

Compared with deep-pocketed multinationals enjoying preferential policies like Tesla, which are better positioned to resume production, smaller companies that account for 90% of Chinese enterprises have less financial flexibility to withstand long-lasting disruptions. SMEs contribute over 80% of the country’s jobs, 70% of indigenous innovation, 60% of GDP, and more than half of tax income. The impact of SME shutdowns or bankruptcy due
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to worker and cash shortages or logistical interruptions may well go beyond China’s GDP numbers.

The second is the indefinite production shutdown in epidemic areas where supply chain disruptions may have far-reaching effects. With the growing prospect of the virus being under full control outside Hubei by the end the first quarter, the economic impact on both supply and demand sides is likely to be limited. White collars in Beijing and Shanghai who have returned to work since February 17 are now pleased to share photos of traffic jams in rush hours (see Figure 1 for business resumption in different regions). Given that the hundreds of daily new confirmed infections in the country are mostly reported from Hubei and tens of thousands of patients remain in hospital, no one can tell when production and consumption can be restored to normal levels in the epicenter. A transport hub and advanced manufacturing center in central China, Hubei produced 9% of the country’s automobiles and 13% of sulphuric acid in 2018. Wuhan, the capital city, ranks 7th by GDP among major Chinese cities, higher than Hangzhou, the capital city of Zhejing province. With its Optics Valley – a high-tech industrial park – producing world-class fiber optic equipment, Wuhan is ranked 13th by Bloomberg among more than 2,000 Chinese cities in terms of their importance for supply chains.

Figure 1. Business Resumption Levels (State-Owned Enterprises)
Provinces/Municipalities
Resumption Levels
Beijing
As of February 12, 99.7% had resumed business or productions, with the construction work of three projects (theater, library, and museum) in the urban sub-center fully resumed on February 9.
Shanghai
700,000 employees of municipality-managed enterprises have returned to work, including 100,000 working from home (80% resumption).
Shanxi
As of February 11, 28 provincially-owned enterprises at 1,000 sites had resumed business.
Liaoning
53 provincial-owned companies and their subsidiaries have resumed operations with 90,000 employees on duty each day; 89 city-owned enterprises and their branches in 14 cities have resumed operations with 89,000 on duty daily.
Zhejiang
As of February 12, 79% of provincially-owned enterprises essential for the anti-virus combat had resumed production.
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Anhui
As of February 13, with 164,000 employees having returned to work, 25 out of the 26 provincially-owned enterprises had resumed operations, including 242 branches (60% resumption).
Fujian
As of February 12, 790 enterprises have resumed operations with 117,000 employees returning to work (77.9% resumption).
Shandong
As of February 10, 39 provincially-owned companies had resumed business and major construction work had been accelerated.
Henan
As of February 10, 15 provincially-managed enterprises (47%) had resumed production with 44.4% employees back to work; 88% employees at 2 provincial commission- managed companies had returned to work; and altogether 180,000 had been back at work.
Guangdong
18 provincially-owned companies have resumed business.
Guangxi
All the 17 state-owned companies had resumed operations as of February 11.
Gansu
As of February 11, 29 provincially-owned enterprises had resumed business and 85% of the 425 subsidiaries had resumed operations.
Central Enterprises
80% of the 20,000 manufacturing subsidiaries under central enterprises have resumed operations.
Source: State-owed Assets Supervision and Administration Commission of the State Council

Some sectors have found business opportunities amid the unfolding coronavirus crisis. For example, the health-care industry and providers of online services like telecommunications, education, and entertainment have expanded. According to the Shanghai Municipal Education Commission, primary and secondary school students in Shanghai will attend online classes starting from March 2 as schools will remain closed indefinitely, so that their learning progress will not be significantly affected.

Compared with the SARS outbreak, the COVID-19 epidemic will have far greater economic impacts on China, not only because this new virus is more contagious, but also because China’s economic integration stands at a much higher level today and is thus more vulnerable to complex internal and external risks. Given the robust regulatory measures expected to be taken by the government, if the economic fallout can be confined in Hubei and substantially contained by the first quarter, the epidemic’s overall impact will be manageable. A summary of the views of leading economists and research institutions
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shows that, even affected by the epidemic, China’s GDP growth rate in 2020 will drop by no more than half a percentage point (Figure 2).

Figure 2. Forecasts of COVID-19 Impact on China’s GDP Growth in 2020
Sources
Chinese GDP Growth Forecasts

Extent of Impact on GDP Growth
Stock Market Weekly [证 券市场周刊]
4.5%-6.2%
0.3%-0.5% drop for first quarter GDP growth; no impact on whole year’s growth
Wei Shangjin, former chief economist at the Asian Development Bank
n/a
0.1%
The Securities [大风证券]
5.3-5.7%

First quarter GDP growth rate drops to 1.4%-2.3%
Zhang Ming, Chief Economist, Pingan Securities
5%-5.7%

0.2%
Scott Kennedy, Senior Fellow, Center for Strategic and International Studies
5.8%
0.2%
Boston Consulting Group
4.5-5.7%
n/a
Peng Wensheng, Chief Economist, Everbright Securities
n/a
0.4%-1.0%
Jason Furman, former Chairman of White House Council of Economic Advisers
n/a
0.3% or 0.4%
PwC China
5.2%-5.3%
n/a
Commercial Bank of China
n/a
First quarter GDP drops to 3.9-5.0% and uncertain afterwards.
Zhang Yansheng, Chief Analyst, China Center for International Economic Exchanges
n/a
0.2%-1.0%
Roland Rajah, Director of International Economy Program, Lowy Institute
n/a
1%-2%
Source: compiled by the authors
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Sweeping Pro-Business Policies in Place

President Xi Jinping’s declaration of China’s strong resolve to contain the virus on January 20 prompted the central government and local authorities into instant response. A whole range of emergency measures have been taken, including stringent travel restrictions, regular information disclosure, and sustained material supplies. The strengths of China’s system have been fully demonstrated in this “people’s war.” Sixteen pairs of relationship have been set up involving 19 provinces coming to the aid of 16 localities other than Wuhan in Hubei. Countless brave local government officials and volunteers have rushed to the battlefront, working non-stop to deliver supplies to affected regions. Thanks to mobile payment, tens of millions of Chinese citizens under quarantines or travel restrictions are able to buy fresh food and daily necessities.

Since early February, with things looking up outside Hubei, the struggle to revive the economy has begun. Government action to help enterprises get through this difficult time includes four targeted policies. The first is increasing liquidity and financial resources through monetary and fiscal policy. The “flexible and moderate” monetary policy adopted at the Central Conference on Economic Work in December 2019 indicates a more permissive financial environment in 2020. In support of the nationwide anti-virus combat, starting from February, China’s central bank has improved market liquidity through several rounds of open market operations to drive down interest rates and stabilize the capital market. As the consumer price index (CPI) growth rate of 5.4 percent in January is largely due to rising pork prices, overall inflation is manageable and there is still room for maneuver in terms of aggregate monetary policy. Ma Jun, a member of the central bank’s monetary policy committee, has recommended further lowering benchmark lending rates. On February 11, much earlier than previous years, the Ministry of Finance announced that 1.848 trillion yuan ($264.9 billion) of a new local government bond quota had been allocated to stabilize the economy amid the COVID-19 epidemic. Experts forecast that fiscal deficit may exceed the alert level of 3% in 2020.

The second is moderate deregulation to increase the accessibility of financial resources.

Increased market liquidity cannot directly help enterprises overcome their difficulties. On February 1, the central bank announced that it would issue loans totaling 300 billion yuan ($43 billion) at a preferential rate to policy and commercial banks via its re-lending program1 as part of measures to finance the control of the COVID-19 outbreak. China will also raise the tolerance for non-performing loans to small and micro companies and set up a long-term mechanism to encourage more lending to small and micro-sized companies.

1 The program is jointly supported by the central bank, Finance of Ministry, Banking and Insurance Regulatory Commission, Securities Regulatory Commission, and State Administration of Foreign Exchange.
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According to Zhou Liang, vice chairman of the Banking and Insurance Regulatory Commission, non-performing assets worth 2.3 trillion yuan were resolved last year; and with the provision coverage ratio in the banking system reaching over 180%, China has sufficient resources to cope with possible increase in non-performing loans. The central bank has also called on financial institutions to make interest rate concessions to brick-and- mortar businesses, limit loan interests, and reduce financing costs for SMEs. Moreover, the government, law enforcement agencies, and trade associations are expected to provide force majeure remedy and credit repair for epidemic-affected enterprises that have failed to fulfill contractual obligations.

 

The third policy is cutting taxes and fees to lessen burdens on enterprises. Suzhou of Jiangsu province announced on February 2 ten specific measures to help SMEs weather through the epidemic, followed by other localities around the country that have adopted their own relief and remedy measures. Despite near-zero growth of government revenue in 2019, Shanghai has taken as many as 28 measures to help local companies, such as exempting corporate tenants from two months’ rent. The State Council announced on February 18 that it had instructed local authorities to reduce or exempt companies’ contributions to the pension, unemployment, and work-related injury insurance funds. To be more specific, small-, middle- and micro-sized enterprises in regions outside Hubei are exempted from the three categories of contributions for five months from February to June, while larger companies’ contributions will be halved from February to April; companies in Hubei, regardless of their size, will be exempted from the contributions between February and June. Before the end of June 6, enterprises can apply to delay their contributions to housing provident funds; and housing provident loans that are not repaid due to the epidemic will not be considered overdue.
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The Fourth policy is differential measures to maximize policy effectiveness. Many of the above measures are aimed at small-, middle- and micro-sized enterprises and give special support to worst-hit epidemic areas. Enterprises that are important in supply chains are prioritized in government policies. At present, travel restrictions and traffic controls remain the biggest obstacle to the resumption of business and production. Even so, Yangtze Memory Technologies Co., a memory chip supplier in locked-down Wuhan, is fully supported by government policies to ensure its normal output.

Future Course of Action

Tax cuts prove to be the most effective fiscal policy in Chinese history. In the reign of Emperor Qianlong of the Qing Dynasty, there were altogether five nationwide farm-tax exemptions, each lasting a whole year. But whether government subsidies or tax reduction, they all contribute to mounting government debt, to the contrary of the objective of China’s supply-side reforms. Apart from tax relief, three macro-regulatory measures in the future are advisable.

First, using foreign exchange reserves as a quasi-fiscal tool for the purchase of emergency supplies to reduce government spending. China’s high foreign exchange (forex) reserves are the cumulative result of long-running trade surplus since its accession to the World Trade Organization (WTO) nearly two decades ago. For quite a long time, trade surplus is an important contributing factor to inflation as they are used as funds outstanding for foreign exchange, a component of China’s base currency. Using forex reserves as a quasi-fiscal tool will add to China’s financial flexibility at this critical juncture while allaying the long-standing concern over China’s holding of U.S. Treasury securities. Moreover, purchasing emergency supplies with forex reserves may also help reduce government medical insurance expenditure by listing some items under the price quota system, and promote external economies and sustained growth by achieving more balanced trade.

Second, widening capital market access to mitigate the epidemic’s impact. The capital market has long been under strict control as China worries that greater openness may come at the expense of stability. But from a mid- to long-term perspective, taking in foreign investment by opening the capital market will drive China’s sustained growth. Attracting foreign investment in science and technology innovation is a major reform measure adopted for the Lin-gang special area in Shanghai’s pilot free trade zone. Until now, China’s integration into the world economy has been achieved by utilizing foreign capital to develop its labor-intensive industries and participating in international division of labor. The time has come for China to use foreign investment to boost science and technology innovation as a way of strengthening domestic innovation capacity and creating indigenous impetus for economic growth. In addition, improved corporate liquidity resulted from
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capital market growth will enable Chinese companies to invest more in research and development. Public companies on the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets are usually enterprises above designated size. But China’s depreciated stock market value has long limited public companies’ share pledge financing capacity.

 

Third, building a new labor-capital consensus through social mobilization. Sustained economic development is generating a social self-salvage sense. Even as some Chinese economists are calling for lowering minimum wages and abandoning housing provident funds, more and more employees have come to realize that their personal development isbound up with their employers’ growth. In a people’s war against the epidemic, everyone needs to pitch in and social relief and assistance needs to play a more important part. Rent reduction and exemption have helped bring down corporate operational costs. For manufacturers, in the future, operational costs may be further reduced by encouraging employees to work makeup days or work overtime unpaid for an agreed period of time.

Significance of the COVID-19 Epidemic to China’s Long-term Reform and Development

Accustomed to dialectical thinking, the Chinese people tend to see positive impacts of the COVID-19 epidemic on China’s reform and long-term development despite the many challenges it has brought to the country’s economy and society.

First, it helps foster a national consensus on high-quality development. The notion of high-quality development had long been advocated in China before it was formally proposed at the 19th National Congress of the Communist Party of China (CPC) in 2017. However, the structural problems in China’s economy have remained difficult to solve mainly due to parochial thinking of local governments and the inherent expansionist
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tendency of the market. In the fight against the epidemic, the Chinese government’s strenuous efforts to balance public security with economic growth once again manifest the resolution of the central leadership to promote the building of a modern economic system, optimize the industrial structure, and achieve sustainable development. The negative economic effects of the epidemic also serve as an important catalyst for the formation of a national consensus on high-quality development, which paves the way for deeper social and economic reforms in China.

Second, it helps enhance China’s national governance capacity and comprehensive capabilities in countering social and economic risks. To a country with a super-large population, a strong capacity for social organization and mobilization not only provides an institutional safeguard against various social emergencies, but it is also a key element of the national system’s competitiveness. Admittedly, hardly any country can unite the whole nation for concerted policy implementation within such a short time like China. When the “pause” button was pressed on China’s economy, the public responded spontaneously, trying to stay home all the time and keeping a good social order regardless of their personal wants, which demonstrates strong public trust in the government and recognition of its leadership in fighting against the epidemic. The Chinese government, in turn, has proven itself trustworthy by effectively mobilizing national resources for worst-hit areas, optimizing the work of such aid agencies as the Red Cross, building numerous makeshift hospitals within weeks, and promptly dismissing incompetent government officials, among other actions.

In the meantime, the epidemic indicates that there is much more to do before a modernized national governance system is fully established with adequate governance capacity both at the central and local levels – as requested by the 4th Plenary Session of the 19th National CPC Congress held in October 2019. As a living organism would naturally develop antibodies to viruses, any natural disaster or epidemic will be a chance to improve the social governance system and help guard against future challenges. Indeed, with joint social efforts to combat the epidemic, China’s national governance capacity and the social governance system have been further strengthened; profound reforms are launched in epidemic monitoring and control, disaster relief, mobilization, management and distribution of aid, and other areas; multiple policy innovations are also being made. For example, the e-government system and some business environment-improving policies, which the Chinese government has been pushing for in the past years, have been widely adopted during the epidemic, greatly facilitating the government approval process for enterprises and the public.

Third, it helps strengthen the digital economy and generate new momentum for economic growth. As a main driver of China’s economic growth, digital economy
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accounted for 34.8% of the national economy in 2018;2 and it has been employed by nearly 60% of Chinese enterprises, including those in the real estate sector. To meet the many new demands created by the epidemic, China’s digital economy is expected to “fast- forward” in the near future.3 For instance, large quantities of medical supplies and daily necessities were transported from JD.com’s Renhe Branch to No. 9 Hospital in Wuhan by the company’s intelligent robots on a “non-human contact” mode.4 Likewise, application of such technologies as intelligent videoconferencing, long-distance medical treatment, e- learning, telecommuting, and big-data testing has been surging, all of which are conducive to the automation and intelligentization of enterprises.

 

The epidemic also helps optimize China’s economic structure and the public’s asset allocation. For one thing, the widely-practiced “work-from-home” mode causes much pressure on commercial real estates, leading social capital away from the overheated sector; for another thing, because of the epidemic, enterprises and the public have developed a better understanding about economic uncertainties, and thus may start to pay more for insurance and invest in other sectors, by which China will lessen its decade-long dependence on “real estate economy.”5 Besides, since the transportation and logistics networks around China are heavily struck by the epidemic, Chinese enterprises have paid greater attention to the stability and smoothness of supply chains. With the rapid development of manufacturing in interior provinces, regional supply chains are likely to be further strengthened as more measures are taken to enhance their stability.

2 中国信通院:《中国数字经济发展与就业白皮书(2019年)》
3 唐洪涛. 疫情凶猛,数字经济按下快进键[N].首席数字官,2020.02.17.
4 新京报. 京东物流在武汉投入无人配送车 实现医院无接触配送[N].2020.02.07.
5 Allianz Insurance Holding went into business in Shanghai on January 16, 2020, as the first wholly foreign-owned insurance company in China and a key step for the country to open its financial sector to foreign capital.
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International Cooperation to Mitigate Spill-over Effect on the World Economy

As the second largest economy, China’s GDP accounts for 16.3% of the world’s total, contributing 38% of the world’s economic growth in 2019. The great economic impacts of the epidemic are naturally spilling over across the globe. Judged from the current trends, most provinces and municipalities are likely to call off the unconventional lockdown and control measures for national economy to get back on track. According to IHS Markit estimates, if all economic activities are fully resumed by the end of February, world economy will not suffer too much, with a potential drop of economic growth of 0.8% and 0.5% in the first and second quarters, respectively, while the world GDP growth rate for 2020 might be 0.4% lower than previously estimated and could be 0.4% higher in 2021 than previous prediction (Figure III).6

Figure III
Source: IHS Markit, February 6, 2020.

In merchandise trade, since China’s economy was almost in a pause for two to three weeks with minimum demands for raw materials, the global bulk commodity prices – especially of crude oil – have plummeted. At the same time, due to tight traffic controls and travel restrictions, the processing of goods imports in major economic centers and ports has slowed down, hindering the inflow of imported goods. For example, agricultural exporters in the United States, New Zealand, and Australia may need to dispose of their inventories originally prepared for China’s Spring Festival holiday.

6 Todd Lee and Elisabeth Waelbroeck Rocha, “Impacts of Coronavirus Containment Effort Ripple through Global Economy,” IHS Markit, February 6, 2020, http://news.ihsmarkit.com/prviewer/release_only/slug/impacts-of-coronavirus-containment-effort- ripple-through-global-economy.
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In services trade, a sharp plunge in the number of outbound Chinese tourists deals the heaviest blow to the economies of China’s neighbors; other destinations that used to host ever more Chinese tourists – such as Australia, New Zealand, the United States, and some European countries – also feel the shock (Figure IV). For fear of the epidemic spreading to the United States, the Trump administration announced a temporary travel ban on February 1 on Chinese citizens, followed by Australia and scores of other countries. All these tourist destinations are hence subject to significant economic losses. Meanwhile, thousands of Chinese students studying abroad, especially in U.S. and Australian universities or schools, are unable to return after staying in China for the winter vacation, which leads to shrinking incomes of those universities or schools as well as the local societies.

Figure IV

Source: The Moodie Davitt Report, February 6, 2020, https://www.moodiedavittreport.com/coronavirus-the-travel-and-tourism-impact-in-asia- pacific/.

The global supply chains will face the biggest and most profound challenges. As China holds a key position in global production networks (according to IHS Markit, in 2019, China took up 30.5% of the world’s total added value in manufacturing and 26.3% of that in high-tech manufacturing),7 the slowing pace and even total stop of industrial production around the country has greatly disrupted the global supply chains. For example, Apple recently lowered its revenue expectations, for the epidemic has both limited iPhone

7 Ibid.
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production and curtailed the demands of Chinese mainland consumers. On February 2, a Wall Street analyst estimated a 10% drop of iPhone shipments for the first quarter.8

Possible Impacts on China-U.S. Economic Relations

The U.S. economic growth has begun to show a slowing trend, with a GDP growth of 2.4% in 2017, 2.9% in 2018, and 2.1% in the fourth quarter of 2019. Domestic consumption remains the biggest driver of the U.S. economic growth, constituting 68% of its total GDP of $27.1 trillion. Yet, the growth rate of domestic consumption was only 2.6% in 2019, as compared with 3% in 2018, while the actual disposable income increased by 3% in 2019, as compared with 4% in 2018. As U.S. Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell said on a press conference on January 29, the growth of personal consumption expenditures has fallen from “robust” to “moderate.” Meanwhile, due in large part to its trade war againstChina, the U.S. private investment has been on a decline, further hindering its economic growth. Although the Phase One deal was signed by China and the United States, most of the extra duties levied by the Trump administration on Chinese exports will remain and continue to undermine the U.S domestic investment and corporate revenues.

On the whole, the COVID-19 epidemic may cause only limited impact on the U.S. economy thanks to its huge size and market power. Wall Street witnessed a slowing trend of major stock-market indexes like Dow Jones, Standard & Poor’s, and Nasdaq during the first month of 2020, but seems to be gathering speed again as the epidemic is increasingly under control in the Chinese mainland. Meanwhile, to hedge against risks caused by slowing world economic growth, international capital is flooding to the United States, leading to appreciation of the U.S. dollar and falling U.S. Treasury yields in recent weeks. In this sense, the epidemic is beneficial to the U.S. economy.

However, the epidemic will to varying degrees harm American enterprises with large investments or close economic ties in China. At present, Starbucks, Apple, Disney, and a number of other American companies have suspended operations in China; Delta, United, and American Airlines have halted many flights between China and the United States; General Motors, Ford and Fiat Chrysler have also closed their factories in China. To those enterprises, losses of revenues from China will significantly decrease their total revenues of the whole year.

For now, the biggest impact of the epidemic on China-U.S. economic relations may be the delay in the implementation of their Phase One deal. Recently, the Chinese government has adopted many measures – such as cutting punitive tariffs on $75 billion

8 “ ‘Crisis Mode’: Coronavirus Disrupts the Heart of Electronics Manufacturing in China,” Hong Kong News, February 9, 2020, https://hksar.org/crisis-mode-coronavirus-disrupts-the-heart-of-electronics- manufacturing-in-china.
Revitalize China’s Economy: Winning Another Battle Against COVID-19 Epidemic |14
worth of imported U.S. goods and expanding the scope of tariff exemption for U.S. goods – to fulfill its commitment of increasing imports from the United States. Nevertheless, we should count in the uncertainties of the epidemic outbreak in the implementation. On the one hand, disruption of China’s industry operation and expectation of further down-spiral economic growth in China, will reduce its demand for imported energy and electrical equipment in short run. On the other hand, American government’s imposition of rigorous travel ban on China have already reduced transportation capacity between two sides. Worse still, the U.S. government is contemplating further restrictions on high-tech exports to China, which will make it even more difficult for China to fulfill its purchasing commitment. Therefore, it is necessary for both sides to strengthen consultation and negotiation during and after the epidemic, in order to facilitate the implementation of the Phase One deal.
Revitalize China’s Economy: Winning Another Battle Against COVID-19 Epidemic |15
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2.蔡昉,“继续为实现今年经济社会发展目标任务而努力”《,人民日报》2020年2月 12日第9版。

刘昆, “积极的财政政策要大力提质增效”,《求是》2020 年第 4 期。
中国人民银行, “2019 年第四季度中国货币政策执行报告”, 2020 年 2 月 19 日。
中国经济信息社, “打赢经济抗役战须定向发力精准施策”, 新华社经济分析报告

(第1047期), 2020年2月17日。
郑安琪, “疫情当前,数字经济消费的机遇与挑战”,《人民邮电报》2020 年 2 月

13日第4版。
胡月晓, “新冠疫情会影响中国经济么?” FT 中文网, 2020 年 2 月 18 日。
“金融助力‘战疫情’, 专项再贷款驰援企业”, 中国人民银行, 2020 年 2 月 18 日,

http://politics.gmw.cn/2020-02/18/content_33567676.htm。
徐奇渊, “疫情对全球供应链的冲击有多大?”,《财经》2020 年 2 月 18 日。
何文龙、吴剑峰, “新型冠状病毒疫情下的企业生存与发展之道”, 对外经济贸易

大学国际商学院调研报告, 2020 年 2 月 17 日。
唐洪涛, “疫情凶猛, 数字经济按下快进键”, 首席数字官, 2020 年 2 月 17 日。
“金融系统全力支持抗击疫情和恢复生产新闻发布会”, 国务院新闻办公室, 2020

年 2 月 15 日, http://www.scio.gov.cn/xwfbh/xwbfbh/wqfbh/42311/42520/index.htm


天风证券, “三个月后看中国,疫情影响与展望”, 2020 年 2 月 14 日。
陆娅楠, “国家发改委:推动企业有序复工复产”, 人民网, 2020 年 02 月 12 日,

http://finance.people.com.cn/n1/2020/0212/c1004-31582661.html。
黄奇帆, “新冠疫情下对经济发展和制造业复工的几点建议”, 清华大学互联网产

业研究院, 2020年2月11日。
张琼斯, “专家热议疫情对经济影响”,《上海证券报》2020 年 2 月 10 日,

http://finance.sina.com.cn/roll/2020-02-10/doc-iimxxstf0318088.shtml。
波士顿咨询, “新型冠状病毒疫情影响”, 2020 年 2 月。
张明, “应客观评估本次肺炎疫情对中国经济的负面影响”,《财经》2020 年 1 月

29日,2月9日修改。
国泰君安宏观研究, “疫情影响分析:主要区域和产业链、供应链冲击”, 2020 年

2 月 7 日, https://finance.sina.com.cn/wm/2020-02-07/doc-iimxyqvz0930560.shtml。
20.陆一夫,“京东物流在武汉投入无人配送车,实现医院无接触配送”《,新京报》2020

年2月7日。

“新型冠状病毒疫情将对世界经济产生怎样的影响?”, 中国与全球化智库, 2020

年2月5日。
“新型冠状病毒疫情对我国主要行业发展的影响分析及政策建议”, 民生银行研
References|1
究院, 2020年2月5日。

彭文生, “疫情是短期冲击, 不改变经济增长趋势水平”, 中国金融四十人论坛,

2020年1月31日。
中国信通院,《中国数字经济发展与就业白皮书(2019年)》, 中国信息通信研究

院, 2019年4月。
Dun & Bradstreet, “Business Impact of the Coronavirus:Business and Supply Chain

Analysis Due to the Coronavirus Outbreak,” Bisnode, February 20, 2020, https://www.bisnode.com/globalassets/global2/pdf/reports/dun_and_bradstreet_coron avirus_impact_report.pdf.
U.S. Federal Reserve, “Minutes of the Federal Open Market Committee, January 28-
29, 2020,” Released on February 19, 2020, https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/files/fomcminutes20200129.pdf.

“A Deadly Disease Disrupts: The New Coronavirus could Have A Lasting Impact on Global Supply Chains,” The Economist, February 15, 2020.
Trinh Nguyen, “The Economic Fallout of the Coronavirus in Southeast Asia,” Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, February 13, 2020.
Jerome H. Powell, “Testimony by Chair Powell on the Semiannual Monetary Policy Report to the Congress,” Federal Reserve, February 11, 2020, https://www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/testimony/powell20200211a.htm.
“ ‘Crisis Mode’: Coronavirus Disrupts the Heart of Electronics Manufacturing in China,” Hong Kong News, February 9, 2020, https://hksar.org/crisis-mode- coronavirus-disrupts-the-heart-of-electronics-manufacturing-in-china.
Todd Lee and Elisabeth Waelbroeck Rocha, “Impacts of Coronavirus Containment Effort Ripple through Global Economy,” IHS Markit, February 6, 2020, http://news.ihsmarkit.com/prviewer/release_only/slug/impacts-of-coronavirus- containment-effort-ripple-through-global-economy.
Marc Labonte “Recent Slower Economic Growth in the United States: Policy Implications,” Congressional Research Service, January 28, 2020, https://fas.org/sgp/crs/misc/R46200.pdf.
Wei Shangjin, “Will the Coronavirus Cause a Major Growth Slowdown in China?” Project Syndicate, January 27, 2020, https://www.project- syndicate.org/commentary/china-coronavirus-three-factors-limit-economic-impact- by-shang-jin-wei-2020-01.
Kyle Handley, Fariha Kamal, and Ryan Monarch, “Rising Imports Tariffs, Falling Export Growth: When Modern Supply Chains Meet Old-Style Protectionism,” NBER Working Paper No. 26611, January 2020, https://www.nber.org/papers/w26611.pdf.
References|2

 

20 de gânduri despre “Coronavirus – Raportul III al SIIS

  1. OK, suna a propaganda a Partidului Comunist Chinez. Despre modul brutal in care autoritatile chineze intra in vietile oamenilor scrie ceva? Despre cenzura masiva instituita de putere? Despre cum au ignorat aparitia bolii se lauda cumva Partidul Comunist Chinez? Elita comunista chineza realizeaza ca este vorba despre supravietuirea lor la putere in primul rind…si de aia nu vorbesc decit dspre succese viitoare.

    Apreciază

      • Da, complicat :). Trump vorbea ieri de o posibila pandemie, dar la o intrebare incomoda a unui jurnalist despre China, a evitat sa raspunda, si l-a laudat pe Presedintele acestei tari. Putin e ocupat cu modificarile Constitutiei si referendumul din 22 aprilie. Din discutiile lor aprinse, mai mult cearta decit discutii, la Rossya 24 (emisiune Vladimir Soloviov) am retinut ca rusii sunt deosebit de fericiti cu „epoca Putin” si ingrjorati sa nu le mai vina un Eltin presedinte dupa Putin. Se tot scarpina in cap cum sa gaseasca un „alt Putin” sa le conduca natiunea. Interesanta aceasta natiune rusa, probabil slavii sunt mai inclinati sa fie disciplinati si sa faca corp comun (decit latinii de exemplu), preferind sa aibe un lider „intelept” pe termen lung, sperind, spun ei sa se concentreze pe teme nationale si sa nu permita interferente externe. De altfel, noua lor Constitutie va interzice oricarui lider rus sa aiba depozite financiare la banci straine (conturi in strainatate). Putin este un tip destept, fara indoiala, dar nu stiu daca acest sistem de conducere de tip dictatura „soft” ii va salta pe rusi la rangul de putere mondiala prima pe care si-l doresc (vezi expansiunea ruseasca recenta in Siria, Libia, America de Sud, Serbia), mai ales ca aliatii lor (Iran, China) nu impartasesc aceleasi valori culturale/grup de limbi si religioase. Cum sa faci o armata aliata functionala cind tu esti natiune ortodoxa, cu valente euro-asiatice, cu o natiune musulmana, si una in care nici crestinismul nici islamul nu e primordiala (in China domina budismul, taoismul, confucianismul si credintele rurale)?

        Revenind la „bomba coronavirus”, cine va fi responsabil pentru vietile pierdute in alte tari, dupa „exportul” de coronavirus din China? Si ce inseamna sa fii „responsabil” in contextul in care devine pandemie si vor muri foarte multi oameni? Poti asimila pandemia cu un atac neintentionat, un razboi biologic nedeclarat? Atentie, nu punctez impotriva Chinei si a nimanui in particular. Dar aceasta este o criza care are deja efecte economice serioase, spre catastrofale pentru China, si in curind, daca nu se iese din criza, si pentru toate celelalte state care au relatii cu China. Iata o alta fata a „globalizarii”. O problema gloabala are nevoie de o solutie globala. Pina acum autoritatile nationale nu au fost in stare sa gestioneze situatia…vezi Italia de exemplu.

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    • Măi trexsr chiar ești diasporean? Mai curând te bănui a fi caramitru jr. Sigur că au și chinezii trextarii, tapalagii, mungioaicele, macoveicele, etc. vânduți intereselor străine, dar chiar să aplice teoria castravetelui (a fost un film cu Mihăilescu – Brăila ) în orice situație, nu sunt semnale!
      Strict pe subiectul la zi – este plin goagălă primarului Vanghele de comentarii privind „întâmplarea” că la Wuhan au avut loc Jocurile Mondiale Militare, în perioada 16 – 29 octombrie 2019, cu participarea USA. Și se mai comentează ceva – jupân Trump l-a amenințat pe Prim Ministrul Japoniei că-I trimite 1 milion de mexicani, dar se zice că practic au fost numai niște purtători de virus Wuhan pe un vas de croazieră, staționat de ceva vreme în apropierea coastelor japoneze.
      Despre aceste „întâmplări” ar fi interesant să-ți citim părerea, ca s-a uzat de multă vreme placa zicerilor „ modul brutal in care autoritatile chineze intra in vietile oamenilor” , „despre cenzura masiva instituita de putere”.

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      • „Mai”, „bai”, esti expert @serbanfl sa jignesti si cam la atit se reduce expertiza ta. Tu nu stii daca eu sunt diasporean, eu nu stiu citi ani de acasa ai. Dar nu e greu sa deduci.

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      • @serbanfl, definitie online:

        [EN] Anti-semitic=hostile to or prejudiced against Jews.
        [RO] Anti-semit = ostil sau avind prejudicii impotriva evreilor

        Te intrebai la un moment dat, ca un bun crestin, ce inseamna sa fii anti-semit, si tu si amicii tau de blog, nevinovati, puri, inocenti, mai verzi ca frunza codrului. Aveai ceva rezerve ca ai fi anti-semit cu referire la toti ambasadorii SUA trimisi in Romania care ar fi fost si sunt evrei americani si de asta nu ar fi buni in functia lor. Conform definitiei de mai sus, esti anti-semit.

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  2. Rezistenta impresionanta si neindoielnica victorie din razboiul popular chinez impotriva atacului biologic coronavirus, fac din China o natiune eroica si din sistemul ei politic un mare intelept-mijloc in slujirea poporului-scop. Datorita acestei mari incercari, abatute pe neasteptate asupra sa, abordarii ei cu calm si determinare nestramutate, China va fi si mai iubita si mai sustinuta pe plan international. Natiunile vad, acum, cu mai multa claritate in China drept Natiunea de care au nevoie ca partener si aliat, dedicat intern Poporului si extern Multilateralismului, dar si unicul model socio-politic de unitate si determinare loiale, capabil sa infranga mari ostilitati distrugatoare, politice sau naturale. Sunt pur si simplu coplesit de maretia chinezilor, venite din harnicie si rabdare, care isi au radacinile in filosofia lor milenara. In fata lor, ma inclin cu admiratie si respect. Daca fiecare om al planetei am subscrie cu un euro sau un dolar la efortul de razboi popular chinez anti-coronavirus, le-am reduce din suferinte si pierderi, dar am si refunctionaliza „Fabrica Lumii”, care ne ofera atat de multe din cele necesare Vietii.

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    • #fragmentarium se declară adept al „războiului popular chinez”, adulator al „sistemului ei (al Chinei) politic un mare intelept-mijloc in slujirea poporului-scop”, sistem care are un „unic model socio-politic” demn de urmat.

      Mai este unul prin America, Beny Sanders, care pare să aibă șanse să fie desemnat viitorul candidat prezidențial din partea democraților și care proclamă pe față ideologia comunistă, pe care promite s-o implementeze în America.

      Așa și pe blogul acesta, s-a infiltrat ceea ce se numește #fragmentarium pentru a face propagandă, astăzi, comunistă într-un limbaj demn de perioada anilor ’50.

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    • Să ne imaginăm care ar fi situația azi în lume în privința virozei cu pricina dacă în China ar fi libertate și democrație de tip occidental! Cred că mulți dintre noi și dintre occidentali n-ar mai fi pe Pământ, deci n-ar putea să mai aibă păreri. Spre norocul tuturor, protestele studenților idealiști, dar neștiutori nu au avut succes.

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  3. Această epidemie va avea efecte negative asupra tuturor țărilor, având în vedere faptul că nu este țară care să nu depindă, mai mult sau mai puțin, de resursele din alte țări. Chinezii vor găsi soluții. Este firesc să sufere turismul și nu numai în China, să se declanșeze o criză de subproducție datorită închiderii firmelor din localitățile aflate în carantină, aprovizionarea populației cu produse să aibă de suferit, să piardă mai mult IMN-urile. dar chinezii vor recupera toate pierderile, pentru că sunt tenaci. Am văzut diferite postări din China, prezentate de posturile TV din România. Nu mi s-a părut că politica statului chinez de a nu crea panică (prin cenzurarea informațiilor sau prin diminuarea pericolului), care este mai periculoasă ca însăși epidemia, este specifică comunismului. L-am auzit și pe Trump, afirmând că totul este OK în SUA, dar San Francisco, deși nu are nicio persoană depistată cu coronavirus, a intrat în carantină.
    Mai periculoasă este situația din România! Iohannis se joacă cu populația acestei țări, iar liberalii își pierd trăsăturile umane, devenind pe zi ce trece marionatele Păpușarului, căruia nu-i mai pasă că-și pierde publicul, pentru că și-a atins scopul principal.
    Câțu premier! Ce personalitate are acest individ, de a permis să fie jucăria în mâna Păpușarului și a colegilor lui? Mă întreb, cât și cui mai au de plătit acești indivizi, pentru că au ajuns la putere?

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  4. Hopa, sunt șmecheri comuniștii chinezi! Eu nu am căutat demult informații despre economia Chinei, așa că mă bucur să aflu că politica de a atrage capital străin continuuă să fie o prioritate, dar au și încurajat formarea și derzvoltarea capitalului autohton!
    Păi dacă IMM-urile contribuie cu peste 80% din locurile de muncă ale țării, 70% din inovarea autohtonă, 60% din PIB și mai mult de jumătate din veniturile fiscale, nu pot fi „speriați” cu amenințări privind retragerea unor firme mari, mai ales că au și ei câteva firme de anvergură, cunoscute în toată lumea.
    Sigur că de plecat din China nu va pleca nici o firmă serioasă, decât, cel mult, acei ce și-au recuperat investițiile, iar retehnologizarea preferă să o facă direct printr-o filială nouă deschisă în Vietnam sau tot în China.
    Nu sper, dar poate, cine știe, ajută cuiva această informație!
    Adică vor pricepe mai mulți de ce s-a luat Sebastian Ghiță la trântă cu fl.coldea și c.koveși!!!
    Adică se vor lămurii mai mulți de ce a fost propulsată koveși în fruntea procurorilor din UE !!!
    Adică se vor lămurii mai mulți de ce alina bica nu se repatriază – că n-a tras nimic pe nas, dar a reușit să-l bage la pușcărie pe Ovidiu Tender, de au plecat uimiți avocații luxemburghezi ai acestuia!
    Problema la noi este că nu tot ce luminează și deșteaptă!

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  5. Circulă pe net şi nici nu ştii dacă-i de râs, sau e de plâns :

    Caligula imperator / si-a facut calul senator / Ceausescu om galant / si-a facut vaca savant / Klaus Werner mai sinistru / si-a facut bou’ ministru !

    Drept la libera exprimare.
    Toate actiunile lui Klaus Iohannis duc intr-un singur sens ,acela al traficului de fiinte umane si al institutionalizarii consumului de marihuana si AYAHUASCA , deoarece Catu Florin CONSUMA DROGURI, cei care-l cunosc spun ca fumeaza marihuana, dar tot atat de bine acest ins poate bea si zeama de AYAHUASCA. Recent expurtatoare de vorbe a nazistului Iohannis a incercat sa ascunda consumarea acestei buruieni si in anturajul ei si al lui Klaus Iohannis, asa dupa cum a incercat sa minimalizeze gravitatea dosarului infractional deschis unui angajat MAI care organizase grupuri ce consumau AYAHUASCA. Daca Iohannis l-a numit premier, in batjocora totala fata de Romania pe Catu/consumator de droguri se poate concluziona ca Iohannis are un interes lacom banesc sa-l aduca in fruntea puterii executive pe Catu Florin, astfel incat cei care consuma si vand droguri inclusiv in birourile MAI sa prinda putere si sa stie ca sunt protejati atat de ”prtimier” cat si de Iohannis.
    Pana atunci aflati ca angajati ai MAI,oameni tineri, educati au ajuns deja epave umane, alcoolici si drogati. In fiece oras din tara vezi aceste victime care au ajuns sa semene cu boschetarii.

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  6. Ambasada Chinei la Moscova a trimis o scrisoare de protest autoritatilor ruse pentru ca acestea efectueaza controale asupra oricarui cetatean care arata asiatic, adica rusii fac „ethnic profiling”. Sa amintim ca Rusia a inchis granita cu China. Masuri similare au impus rusii si fata de cetatenii din Iran. Iata ca marea alianta Rusia-China-Iran la care se inchina citiva adulatori aici, sperind ca Romania la un moment dat sa devina Califat sau Gubernie, se naruieshte la cea mai mica bataie de vint. Fie, vintu bate suficient de tare…

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  7. China in sus, China-n jos. Toata lumea judeca in fel si chip China. Se pare ca aceasta mare putere economico-militara ridicata intr-un timp relativ scurt, prin intelepciunea conducatorilor acesteia, la rang de putere economica mondiala, de unde se da „ora exacta” pentru marile puteri economico-financiare mondiale, tind sa cred ca acest principiu „o tara doua sisteme” si-a dovedit viabilitatea si multi incerca intr-un fel sau altul sa copieze acest model greu de aplicat altor popoare si sisteme sociale dezvoltate in sute de ani.
    Cert este ca o China slabita si dezechilibrata economic va afecta grav tot mapamondul inclusiv „jandarmul mondial” care are datoria de onoare sa intervina in echilibrarea situatiei, stiu ei de ce .

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